Betting Edge
The PFT Model's read on every game — paired with the best price across sportsbooks to act on it
How to use this: The PFT Model's lean on every game is analysis, not a lock — historically ~50% against the closing spread, so the edge that compounds is price: each game lists the best number on both sides and the book offering it — take it. Mid is the gap between those two numbers; the wider it is, the bigger the middle — the range of final scores where both sides win.
PFT Model vs Market
Top Edges · Week 1 — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
PFT vs mktPFT SEA -0.6 · mkt SEA -4.0
LeanNE +4.0
Best priceNE +4.5 -115best of 9
WinSEA 52% · mkt 62%
PFT vs mktPFT JAX -11.5 · mkt JAX -7.5
LeanJAX -7.5
Best priceJAX -7.5 -110best of 9
WinJAX 80% · mkt 71%
PFT vs mktPFT PHI -10.6 · mkt PHI -4.5
LeanPHI -4.5
Best pricePHI -4 -110best of 9
WinPHI 78% · mkt 63%
PFT vs mktPFT TEN -4.6 · mkt TEN -2.5
LeanTEN -2.5
Best priceTEN -2 -120best of 9
WinTEN 63% · mkt 57%
PFT vs mktPFT NYG -1.3 · mkt DAL -2.0
LeanNYG +2.0
Best priceNYG +2.5 -102best of 9
WinNYG 54% · mkt 44%
PFT vs mktPFT DEN -2.1 · mkt KC -2.5
LeanDEN +2.5
Best priceDEN +3 -115best of 9
WinDEN 56% · mkt 43%
PFT vs mktPFT CIN -0.9 · mkt CIN -3.5
LeanTB +3.5
Best priceTB +4 -110best of 9
WinCIN 53% · mkt 60%
Full Slate — every game, model read + best price
PFT Model
PFT SEA -0.6 · mkt SEA -4.0
proj NE 18 · SEA 19
leans NE +4.0
◆ Mid 1
SEA -3.5 -115DraftKings
NE +4.5 -115FanDuel
PFT Model
PFT JAX -11.5 · mkt JAX -7.5
proj CLE 11 · JAX 22
leans JAX -7.5
◆ Mid 0
JAX -7.5 -110DraftKings
CLE +7.5 -110DraftKings
PFT Model
PFT PHI -10.6 · mkt PHI -4.5
proj WAS 18 · PHI 28
leans PHI -4.5
◆ Mid 1.5
PHI -4 -110LowVig
WAS +5.5 -110DraftKings
PFT Model
PFT TEN -4.6 · mkt TEN -2.5
proj NYJ 20 · TEN 24
leans TEN -2.5
◆ Mid 1
TEN -2 -120BetUS
NYJ +3 -105DraftKings
PFT Model
PFT NYG -1.3 · mkt DAL -2.0
proj DAL 26 · NYG 28
leans NYG +2.0
◆ Mid 1
NYG +2.5 -102FanDuel
DAL -1.5 -115DraftKings
PFT Model
PFT DEN -2.1 · mkt KC -2.5
proj DEN 23 · KC 21
leans DEN +2.5
◆ Mid 1
KC -2 -120BetUS
DEN +3 -115BetMGM
PFT Model
PFT CIN -0.9 · mkt CIN -3.5
proj TB 28 · CIN 28
leans TB +3.5
◆ Mid 0.5
CIN -3.5 -110DraftKings
TB +4 -110MyBookie
PFT Model
PFT DET -9.9 · mkt DET -7.0
proj NO 17 · DET 27
leans DET -7.0
◆ Mid 0.5
DET -7 -110DraftKings
NO +7.5 -117BetRivers
PFT Model
PFT LAR -7.3 · mkt LAR -3.5
proj SF 21 · LAR 29
leans LAR -3.5
◆ Mid 0.5
LAR -3 -120DraftKings
SF +3.5 -110FanDuel
PFT Model
PFT HOU -1.0 · mkt BUF -1.0
proj BUF 20 · HOU 21
leans HOU +1.0
◆ Mid 0.5
HOU +1.5 -120DraftKings
BUF -1 -113BetRivers
PFT Model
PFT MIN -2.7 · mkt GB -1.0
proj GB 20 · MIN 22
leans MIN +1.0
◆ Mid 2.5
MIN +1.5 -110DraftKings
GB +1 -110MyBookie
PFT Model
PFT LAC -7.1 · mkt LAC -10.5
proj ARI 19 · LAC 26
leans ARI +10.5
◆ Mid 1.5
LAC -10 -110BetRivers
ARI +11.5 -110DraftKings
PFT Model
PFT LV -1.2 · mkt LV -3.0
proj MIA 21 · LV 22
leans MIA +3.0
◆ Mid 0.5
LV -3 -120DraftKings
MIA +3.5 -102FanDuel
PFT Model
PFT PIT -2.4 · mkt PIT -3.0
proj ATL 18 · PIT 21
leans ATL +3.0
◆ Mid 0.5
PIT -2.5 -120FanDuel
ATL +3 +100DraftKings
PFT Model
PFT BAL -2.1 · mkt BAL -3.5
proj BAL 24 · IND 22
leans IND +3.5
◆ Mid 0.5
IND +4 -110MyBookie
BAL -3.5 -110DraftKings
Informational only. Model projections and posted prices are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. Lines move; confirm at the book before betting. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.