Pro Football Terminal — NFL projections, playoff odds & analytics

Division

NFC South

Team	2025 Rec	Win Div	Playoff
ATL	8-9	23%	32%
CAR	8-9	13%	19%
TB	8-9	51%	60%
NO	6-11	13%	19%

Record = 2025 final · odds = 2026 simulation

2026 Outlook

Projected wins

9.0p10 6.0 — p90 12.0

Round	Prob
Win division	50.8%
Make playoffs	59.8%
Divisional rd.	34.7%
Conf. champ.	16.5%
Super Bowl	7.4%
Win SB	3.3%

2026 Schedule

proj record 9.2–7.8

Schedule

27th

toughest of 32

Offenses faced

29th

toughest of 32

Defenses faced

16th

toughest of 32

Wk	Opp	Opp	Score	Proj	Win%
1	@CIN	+1.2	28–28	-0.9	47%
2	vsCLE	-3.5	22–15	+7.7	72%
3	vsMIN	+2.3	19–22	-3.1	41%
4	vsGB	+1.8	23–26	-2.5	43%
5	@DAL	-0.8	29–28	+0.3	51%
6	vsPIT	+0.0	23–21	+1.4	54%
7	@CAR	-2.5	24–20	+3.4	60%
8	vsATL	-1.3	22–20	+1.5	54%
9	@CHI	-0.2	24–24	-0.6	48%
11	@DET	+3.1	22–30	-7.9	28%
12	vsCAR	-2.5	26–18	+7.5	71%
13	vsLAC	+0.2	22–23	-1.4	46%
14	@BAL	+2.0	20–25	-5.3	35%
15	vsNO	-3.1	23–20	+2.9	59%
16	@ATL	-1.3	21–23	-1.9	44%
17	vsLAR	+3.7	20–26	-6.0	33%
18	@NO	-3.1	21–22	-1.0	47%

Quarterbacks · 4

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
QB	1st	Baker Mayfield	6'1"	215	31	Oklahoma
QB	2nd	Jake Browning	6'2"	209	30	Washington
QB	4th	Jalon Daniels	6'0"	220	23	Kansas
QB	—	Connor Bazelak	6'3"	225	25	Bowling Green; Indiana; Missouri

Running Backs · 5

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
RB	1st	Bucky Irving	5'10"	195	23	Oregon
RB	2nd	Kenneth Gainwell	5'9"	200	27	Memphis
RB	3rd	Sean Tucker	5'10"	205	24	Syracuse
RB	4th	Josh Williams	5'9"	210	26	LSU
RB	—	Kadarius Calloway	6'0"	213	24	New Mexico State; California; Old Dominion; East Mississippi JC

Wide Receivers · 11

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
WR	1st	Chris Godwin	6'1"	209	30	Penn State
WR	2nd	Emeka Egbuka	6'1"	205	23	Ohio State
WR	3rd	Jalen McMillan	6'1"	192	24	Washington
WR	4th	Ted Hurst	6'3"	195	21	Georgia State
WR	5th	Tez Johnson	5'10"	165	24	Oregon
WR	6th	Kameron Johnson	5'10"	170	24	Barton
WR	7th	David Sills	6'3"	211	31	West Virginia
WR	8th	Dennis Houston	6'1"	190	27	Western Illinois
WR	10th	Eric Rivers	5'11"	180	23	Georgia Tech
WR	—	Dean Patterson	6'2"	200	24	Georgia Tech; Florida International; Findlay
WR	—	Garrett Greene	5'11"	201	24	West Virginia

Tight Ends · 5

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
TE	1st	Cade Otton	6'5"	247	27	Washington
TE	2nd	Payne Durham	6'5"	255	25	Purdue
TE	3rd	Ko Kieft	6'5"	265	28	Minnesota
TE	4th	Bauer Sharp	6'5"	246	23	LSU
TE	5th	Devin Culp	6'4"	237	26	Washington

Offensive Line · 15

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
OL	—	Ben Bredeson	6'5"	315	28	Michigan
OL	—	Ben Scott	6'5"	310	25	Nebraska; Arizona State
OL	—	Benjamin Chukwuma	6'6"	310	25	Georgia State
OL	—	Billy Schrauth	6'4"	310	22	Notre Dame
OL	—	Cody Mauch	6'6"	303	27	North Dakota State
OL	—	Dan Feeney	6'4"	310	32	Indiana
OL	—	Elijah Klein	6'4"	319	26	Texas-El Paso
OL	—	Graham Barton	6'5"	314	24	Duke
OL	—	Henry Lutovsky	6'6"	320	23	Nebraska
OL	—	Justin Skule	6'6"	315	29	Vanderbilt
OL	—	Luke Goedeke	6'5"	312	27	Central Michigan
OL	—	Luke Haggard	6'7"	305	26	Indiana
OL	—	Marshall Foerner	6'6"	303	25	Minnesota State
OL	—	Paul Rubelt	6'10"	313	25	UCF
OL	—	Tristan Wirfs	6'5"	320	27	Iowa

Interior D-Line · 12

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
LDE	1st	Elijah Roberts	6'4"	295	24	SMU
NT	1st	Vita Vea	6'4"	347	31	Washington
RDE	1st	A'Shawn Robinson	6'3"	320	31	Alabama
LDE	2nd	Calijah Kancey	6'0"	280	25	Pittsburgh
NT	2nd	Elijah Simmons	6'1"	334	24	Tennessee
RDE	2nd	Rakeem Nunez-Roches	6'2"	305	32	Southern Miss
NT	3rd	Haggai Ndubuisi	6'6"	298	25	Nigeria
NT	5th	DeMonte Capehart	6'5"	315	23	Clemson
DL	—	Deshawn McKnight	6'3"	288	22	Arizona; Tennessee-Martin
DL	—	Jayson Jones	6'6"	335	24	Auburn; Oregon
DL	—	Josiah Green	6'1"	280	23	Duke; Dartmouth
DL	—	Nash Hutmacher	6'4"	310	25	Nebraska

Edge Rushers · 6

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
SLB	1st	YaYa Diaby	6'4"	270	27	Louisville
SLB	2nd	Al-Quadin Muhammad	6'3"	250	31	Miami (FL)
WLB	2nd	Anthony Nelson	6'7"	271	29	Iowa
SLB	3rd	Mohamed Kamara	6'1"	253	26	Colorado State
WLB	3rd	Chris Braswell	6'3"	255	24	Alabama
WLB	4th	David Walker	6'2"	260	26	Central Arkansas

Linebackers · 10

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
LILB	1st	Alex Anzalone	6'3"	234	31	Florida
RILB	1st	Christian Rozeboom	6'2"	230	29	South Dakota State
LILB	2nd	Josiah Trotter	6'2"	240	21	Missouri
RILB	2nd	SirVocea Dennis	6'0"	230	26	Pittsburgh
LILB	3rd	John Bullock	6'0"	230	25	Nebraska
RILB	3rd	Nick Jackson	6'0"	235	25	Iowa
LB	—	Caden Fordham	6'1"	232	23	N.C. State
LB	—	Jack Pyburn	6'3"	258	22	LSU; Florida
LB	—	Javin Wright	6'4"	232	26	Nebraska
LB	—	Yasir Holmes	6'4"	240	24	Tarleton State; Frostburg State

Defensive Backs · 16

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
FS	1st	Antoine Winfield	5'9"	203	27	Minnesota
LCB	1st	Zyon McCollum	6'2"	199	27	Sam Houston State
NB	1st	Jacob Parrish	5'10"	198	22	Kansas State
RCB	1st	Benjamin Morrison	6'0"	190	22	Notre Dame
SS	1st	Tykee Smith	5'10"	202	25	Georgia
FS	2nd	Rashad Wisdom	5'9"	210	25	UTSA
LCB	2nd	Damarion Williams	5'10"	183	27	Houston
NB	2nd	Keionte Scott	6'0"	194	24	Miami
RCB	2nd	Josh Hayes	6'0"	190	27	Kansas State
SS	2nd	Miles Killebrew	6'2"	222	33	Southern Utah
NB	3rd	Chase Lucas	5'11"	184	29	Arizona State
NB	4th	Kemon Hall	5'11"	190	29	North Texas
DB	—	Ayden Garnes	6'0"	183	23	Arizona; West Virginia
DB	—	JJ Roberts	6'0"	195	24	Marshall
DB	—	Ja'Qurious Conley	6'1"	215	25	Charlotte; North Carolina
DB	—	Marcus Banks	6'0"	190	25	Mississippi State; Alabama

Special Teams · 11

Pos	Depth	Player	Ht	Wt	Age	College
H	1st	Riley Dixon	6'4"	221	32	Syracuse
KR	1st	Kenneth Gainwell	5'9"	200	27	Memphis
P	1st	Riley Dixon	6'4"	221	32	Syracuse
PK	1st	Chase McLaughlin	6'0"	190	30	Illinois
PR	1st	Kameron Johnson	5'10"	170	24	Barton
KR	2nd	Kameron Johnson	5'10"	170	24	Barton
PR	2nd	Tez Johnson	5'10"	165	24	Oregon
KR	3rd	Sean Tucker	5'10"	205	24	Syracuse
KR	4th	Josh Williams	5'9"	210	26	LSU
LS	—	Evan Deckers	6'3"	252	27	Duke
LS	—	Scott Daly	6'1"	245	32	Notre Dame

Team Profile

2025 · pct vs league

Pass Off	-0.03	#22	32%
Rush Off	0.01	#11	68%
Pass Def	0.07	#20	39%
Rush Def	-0.07	#4	90%
Scoring Off	380	#18	45%
Scoring Def	411	#20	39%

Advanced Profile

2025 · rank of 32

Pass Protection

Pressure % allowed15.0%1st

Sack % allowed6.4%15th

Pocket time2.29s27th

Run Blocking

Yds before contact / rush2.7yd8th

Pass Rush

Pressures13123rd

Sacks3715th

Coverage

Completion % allowed66.3%18th

Passer rtg allowed10025th

Special Teams

FG %84.2%19th

Punt net avg40.2yd27th

Identity

Avg depth of target8.1yd—

aggregated from roster PFR / special-teams stats · green = top of league

EPA Trend

EPA/play by season · adj

NetOffDefDef: lower = better

Performance · 2025

8-9 · -31 pt diff

Metric	Off	Def	Rk
EPA / play (adj)	+0.013	+0.025	19
EPA / play (raw)	-0.002	+0.021	21/14
Pass EPA	-0.026	+0.068	22/20
Rush EPA	+0.014	-0.072	11/4
Points	380	411	—

Lower def EPA = better. Ranks: 1 best, 32 worst.

Team Leaders

2025

Passing Yds	Mayfield3,693·Bridgewater62
Rushing Yds	Irving588·White572·Mayfield382
Receiving Yds	Egbuka938·Otton572·Shepard371
Sacks	Diaby7.0·Vea4.5·David3.5
Interceptions	Dean3·Parrish2·Winfield2
Solo Tackles	Dennis61·Smith60·David59

Scoring Trend

2025 · pts/game

PPG For

22.4

18th in NFL

PPG Against

24.2

20th in NFL

Differential

-1.8

19th in NFL

— Points for— Points against

dots: W / L

Season Results

8-9 · 5-12 ATS

WinLossCoveredmargin per game

Season History · last 10

5 playoffs · SB 1-0

Season	Regular	Playoffs	Super Bowl
2025	8-9	—	—
2024	10-7	0-1	—
2023	9-8	1-1	—
2022	8-9	0-1	—
2021	13-4	1-1	—
2020	11-5	4-0	Won
2019	7-9	—	—
2018	5-11	—	—
2017	5-11	—	—
2016	9-7	—	—

Situational Splits

2025 · record · pts

Split	Record	PF	PA
Venue
Home	4-4	23.9	23.6
Away	4-5	21	24.7
Competition
One-score (≤8)	6-6	23.2	23.9
vs Winning teams	3-5	23	29.2
Environment
Indoors	3-2	16.4	20
Outdoors	5-7	24.8	25.9
Grass	4-6	22.8	23.2
Turf	4-3	21.7	25.6
Cold (<40°F)	0-1	32	44

Recent Form · last 5

1-4 SU · 0-5 ATS · O2/U3

Wk	Opp	Score	Mgn	Spread	Total
18	vsCAR	W 16-14	+2	+3.0✗	43.5U
17	@MIA	L 17-20	-3	+5.5✗	44.5U
16	@CAR	L 20-23	-3	+3.0✗	44.5U
15	vsATL	L 28-29	-1	+6.0✗	43.5O
14	vsNO	L 20-24	-4	+7.5✗	41.5O

Betting Profile

2025

Straight up	8-9
ATS	5-1229%
Over / Under	8-9 O-U
— ATS splits —
As favorite	2-4
As underdog	3-8
Home	1-7
Away	4-5

vs closing line · splits show cover-no cover

Cap & Roster Construction

APY $213M· gtd $283M

OFF $93.3M (44%)DEF $113M (53%)ST $7.1M

Group	Players	APY	% Total
QB	2	$34.7M	16%
RB	4	$12.8M	6%
WR	7	$32.2M	15%
TE	4	$13.7M	6%
DL	7	$35.6M	17%
EDGE	6	$14.5M	7%
LB	5	$13.2M	6%
DB	11	$49.3M	23%
ST	2	$7.1M	3%

Top Contracts

Player	Yrs	Total	Gtd	APY	Cap%
Baker MayfieldQB	3	$100M	$40.0M	$33.3M	13.1%
Chris GodwinWR	3	$66.0M	$44.0M	$22.0M	7.9%
Antoine WinfieldS	4	$84.1M	$45.0M	$21.0M	8.2%
Vita VeaDT	4	$71.0M	$14.7M	$17.8M	9.7%
Zyon McCollumCB	3	$48.0M	$20.0M	$16.0M	5.7%
Cade OttonTE	3	$30.0M	$20.0M	$10.0M	3.3%

Pending Free Agents

Player	Free	APY
Vita VeaDT	2025	$17.8M
Baker MayfieldQB	2027	$33.3M
A'Shawn RobinsonDT	2027	$10.0M
Anthony NelsonDE	2027	$5.0M
Chase McLaughlinPK	2027	$4.1M
Al-Quadin MuhammadDE	2027	$4.0M
Calijah KanceyDT	2027	$3.6M
Sean TuckerRB	2027	$3.5M

Roster Profile

avg age 26.4

R1 4Day2 12Day3 26UDFA 20

Homegrown 0 (0%)Acquired 62

Avg experience3.7 yrs

Rookies / Vets (8+ yr)7 / 10

Group	Players	Avg Age
QB	3	28
RB	4	25
WR	9	25.2
TE	5	26
DL	8	26.9
EDGE	6	27.2
LB	6	26.2
DB	12	26.4
ST	9	27

Injury Report · 2

last report week 0

Pos	Player	Status
CB	Benjamin Morrison	Questionable
RB	Bucky Irving	Questionable

TB News

20 items

Jason Licht: No one wants to see Baker Mayfield leave
The Buccaneers and quarterback Baker Mayfield are on a contractual collision course.
TB Baker Mayfield2d
Why McAfee isn't concerned over Baker Mayfield's contract status
Why McAfee isn't concerned over Baker Mayfield's contract status
TB Baker Mayfield2d
Todd Bowles: Baker Mayfield's a true pro, contract will take care of itself
There are issues for the Buccaneers and quarterback Baker Mayfield to work out on the business side, but there's been no issues on the football side of things.
TB Baker Mayfield2d
Bucs' Bowles backs Mayfield as long-term QB amid contract talks
Bucs coach Todd Bowles said he "absolutely" wants Baker Mayfield as his long-term quarterback and that he doesn't believe the lack of progress on a new deal has impacted him.
TB Baker Mayfield2d
Bowles: 'Too many guys on the ground' costs Bucs an OTA practice
The Buccaneers were penalized an OTA practice for being too physical, causing them to forfeit Wednesday's practice this week, coach Todd Bowles said Thursday.
TB3d
The Buccaneers lost an offseason practice for having "too many guys on the ground"
The Buccaneers didn't practice on Tuesday, by choice.
TB3d
Bucky Irving takes part in Thursday's Buccaneers practice
Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles said last month that the team expects running back Bucky Irving to return to action "sometime in the summer or fall" and things appear to be moving a little more quickly.
TB Bucky Irving3d
Bucky Irving: Spotted at OTA practice
Irving (shoulder) was on the field for Thursday's OTA. Visit RotoWire.com for more analysis on this update.
TB Bucky Irving3d
Steelers claim P Aidan Laros off waivers, release WR Brandon Johnson
The Steelers added a punter to their roster on Tuesday.
TB Aidan Laros5d
Bucs sign K B.T. Potter
The Buccaneers signed kicker B.T.
TB6d
Mike Alstott's 'I scored a touchdown' story: SB XXXVII
Mike Alstott's 'I scored a touchdown' story: SB XXXVII
TB7d
Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers are on a contractual collision course
On Friday, Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield made it clear that talks on a new contract are not going well.
TB Baker Mayfield8d
What will Baker Mayfield's next contract look like?
What will Baker Mayfield's next contract look like?
TB Baker Mayfield9d
Mayfield: Contract talks 'not anywhere close' with Buccaneers
Speaking publicly for the first time this offseason, Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield said that contract extension talks "are not anywhere close to what we were thinking" and that it's "time to get something done long-term."
TB Baker Mayfield9d
Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers are "not anywhere close" in talks on new contract
Mayfield is entering the final season of the three-year deal he signed with Tampa Bay in 2024.
TB Baker Mayfield9d
Baker Mayfield: Wants new contract before camp
Mayfield said Friday negotiations with the Buccaneers on an extension are ongoing and he would "love to have a long-term deal" beyond 2026, but talks are currently "not anywhere close" and he considers the start of training camp a firm negotiation deadline, Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times reports. Visit RotoWire.com for more analysis on this update.
TB Baker Mayfield9d
In the chase for stadium dollars, Tampa Sports Authority wants to prioritize Bucs over Rays
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tampa Bay Rays are hoping to strike stadium deals.
TB11d
Betting the Buccaneers in 2026: See how Tampa Bay's win total, Super Bowl odds are trending and our best bets
We're breaking down Buccaneers futures in our 2026 betting preview, featuring odds, trends, schedule and more
TB11d
Buccaneers' Godwin 'didn't believe' news of Evans' exit at first
Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin Jr. said Tuesday that he learned Mike Evans was signing with the 49ers on social media, and it wasn't until quarterback Baker Mayfield texted him a "sad face" emoji that he believed the news was real.
TB Chris Godwin12d
Fully healed from his neck injury, Jalen McMillan ready to help replace Mike Evans
Buccaneers receiver Jalen McMillan played only four games last season after a scary neck injury that not only nearly ended his season but also jeopardized his career.
TB13d